The post-World War II order has ruptured. Middle powers face what looks like a binary choice: pursue unattainable self-sufficiency, or accept a performative sovereignty as satellites of a great power. This report sets out a third path.
An Alliance of Middle-Power Democracies Led by a D7
As an Axis of Autocracies consolidates and U.S. foreign policy turns erratic, a new report from former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen proposes a Democracies-7 - a coalition representing around 30% of global GDP - as a third path between unattainable self-sufficiency and accepting performative sovereignty as a satellite of a great power.
In "After the Rupture: An Alliance of Middle-Power Democracies Led by a D7", Anders Fogh Rasmussen sets out a Democracies-7 (D7): a coalition of Australia, Canada, the European Union, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea, and the United Kingdom as founding members, with a combined GDP of roughly US$36 trillion - around 30% of the global total.
Rasmussen argues the D7 would hold the economic weight to deter coercion, even from global hegemons, at a moment when China is weaponizing economic dependence to extract political compliance from democracies one at a time - from Australia to Lithuania, South Korea to Canada - and when multilateral institutions can no longer protect middle powers from coercion and protectionism.
The six initial areas of focus identified in the report are:
- A plurilateral trade alliance to keep rules-based open trade alive as WTO reform stalls.
- An Economic Article 5 to create a collective front of defence against coercion.
- A Democratic Technology Initiative to shape standards, align export controls, and invest jointly in AI, quantum, and space.
- A critical raw materials strategy to break China's grip on rare earth processing.
- A defence pillar, taking inspiration from Ukraine and the Coalition of the Willing.
- Coordinated global investment as a credible alternative to China's Belt and Road.
Governance of the D7 should be light: an annual leaders' summit, super-majority voting, and a lean secretariat to focus on outputs rather than bureaucratic self-aggrandisement. The door should remain open to the United States, alongside others who wish to assume the mantle of global democratic leadership.